[GTCfx]What to Expect in the Week Ahead? 20 April - 24 April
The weekend headlines around the peace deal were inconsistent and at times outright conflicting. With the 14-day ceasefire nearing expiry, the risk is skewed toward a decisive shift rather than a smooth extension—either a last-minute breakthrough or a sharp deterioration. Markets are unlikely to get a quiet rollover here.
Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar is also meaningful this week. Inflation readings from Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and Japan, together with manufacturing data from the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, should give markets a clearer read on whether price pressures remain sticky and whether growth is starting to soften more broadly. The broader backdrop is already one of renewed inflation concerns after the latest US CPI showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% YoY, with energy doing much of the damage.
Monday, April 20
German PPI
Outcome of PPI: 2.5% vs 1.4%
Germany’s producer prices came in notably hotter than expected, and the upside surprise matters because PPI often acts as an early warning signal for downstream inflation. The jump supports the idea that higher input costs are still feeding through the production chain, which increases the risk that consumer prices stay firmer than markets would like. This is especially relevant in the current environment, where energy and supply-side pressures are already back in focus.
Canadian CPI
Consensus: 1.1% vs 0.5% prior
Canada’s CPI will be closely watched for signs that inflation is beginning to firm again. A stronger reading would reinforce the idea that global inflation pressures are broadening rather than fading, particularly if energy and shelter components remain sticky. The Canadian labor market has already been showing signs of softness, so a hotter CPI would complicate the policy picture by reviving inflation concerns without necessarily improving growth.
Tuesday, April 21
New Zealand CPI (QoQ)
Consensus: 0.8% vs 0.6%
New Zealand inflation figures will be key for shaping expectations around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy stance. A firmer print would suggest domestic price pressures are still holding up despite weaker global demand, keeping the central bank cautious about easing. A softer reading, by contrast, would strengthen the case that inflation is continuing to normalize.
US Core Retail Sales
Consensus: 1.3% vs 0.5%
Core retail sales will offer a clean read on US consumer resilience. If spending holds up strongly, it would suggest that households are still absorbing the inflation shock reasonably well, which may keep growth firmer but also reduce pressure on the Fed to pivot quickly. A weaker print would add to concerns that higher prices and tighter financial conditions are finally beginning to weigh on demand.
Wednesday, April 22
UK CPI (YoY)
Consensus: 3.3% vs 3%
UK inflation is expected to edge higher and that would keep pressure on the Bank of England to remain cautious. The key issue is whether the increase is broad-based or mainly driven by energy and administered prices. A hotter figure would reinforce the view that UK inflation is proving more stubborn than markets had hoped, which could delay any meaningful easing bias.
Thursday, April 23
US Manufacturing PMI
Consensus: 52.5 % vs 52.3%
US manufacturing remains in expansion territory, but the market will focus on whether the sector is showing signs of stress from higher input costs and weaker global demand. A stable or slightly stronger reading would suggest the industrial side of the economy is still holding up well. A drop below expectations would raise questions about whether growth is beginning to lose momentum just as inflation risks are rising again.
Friday, April 24
National Core CPI (YoY) Japan
Consensus: 1.7 % vs 1.6%
Japan’s core inflation data will matter for both the Bank of Japan and the yen. A stronger print would support the argument that inflation is becoming more persistent, especially if imported cost pressures continue to build. That would also fit with recent signs of renewed price pressure in Japan, including a sharp rise in domestic CGPI and firmer inflation expectations.